Read a Cascade tree from the root outward. A child node is conditional on its parent occurring.
Probability and confidence
- Probability answers: how likely is this consequence if the parent branch occurs?
- Confidence answers: how strongly does the model trust that estimate?
A high-probability, low-confidence node can describe a plausible effect with weak support. A low-probability, high-confidence node can describe a well-understood tail risk.
Do not substitute one number for the other.
Reading sequence
- Confirm the root event and horizon.
- Scan first-order branches across domains.
- Open high-impact branches, not only high-probability branches.
- Compare probability with confidence.
- Follow the parent chain before quoting a deeper node.
- Mark claims that require external research.
Conditional paths
Child probability is conditional on its parent. A child at 70 percent does not mean a 70 percent chance from the original event unless every preceding condition is accounted for.
Views
The current interface can render the same nodes through several layouts, including canvas, radial, sunburst, treemap and sankey views. A different layout can reveal structure, but it does not change the underlying node estimates.